Best and worst QBs of Week 15: Matt Ryan leads the way

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With one game remaining in Week 15, Matt Ryan has posted the highest Total QBR of the week, while Bryce Petty has the worst. ESPN Stats & Information takes a look at the best and worst QB performances from Week 15 so far in terms of ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (QBR).

Matt Ryan: 96.7 Total QBR

Ryan started fast and never looked back in the Falcons’ blowout victory over the 49ers. In the first quarter, Ryan completed 9 of 11 passes for 103 yards, including two 9-yard scores. After 15 minutes, the Falcons had a 21-0 lead, their largest first-quarter lead since Week 3 of 2014 against the Bucs, and Ryan a 98.9 Total QBR.

With the game largely in hand, Ryan was able to pad his stats and rely on Devonta Freeman and the running game in the final three quarters. Still, Ryan ended the game with a 73.9 completion percentage and a season-high 11.9 yards per dropback. After posting the best QBR and most QB points added of any quarterback in Week 15, Ryan now leads the league in both categories entering the final two weeks of the season.

Matt Moore: 94.7 QBR

Moore completed 12 of 18 passes for 236 yards and a career-high four touchdowns in the Dolphins’ 34-13 win over the Jets on Saturday night. Ten of Moore’s 12 completions resulted in a first down, including four such completions on third down.

The Jets sent five or more pass rushers on 68 percent of Moore’s dropbacks, and he torched them for 205 yards and three touchdowns against the added pressure. He had a 96.8 QBR when the Jets blitzed, and his two biggest plays in terms of expected points added — a 52-yard touchdown to Kenny Stills and a 66-yard TD to Jarvis Landry — came when he faced five or more rushers.

Overall, Moore averaged 13.1 yards per pass attempt, the second-highest average by a player this season and the highest rate for a Dolphins quarterback since Ryan Tannehill averaged 14.8 in Week 7 of 2015.

Andrew Luck: 93.8 QBR

Luck shredded Minnesota’s once-elite defense for 250 yards and two touchdowns in the Colts’ blowout victory over the Vikings. One key for Luck was his deep ball; he was 3-of-4 for 108 yards with both of his touchdowns on passes of at least 20 yards downfield. It was his first multitouchdown game on such passes since Week 7 of last season (against the Saints), but more notably, it’s the first multitouchdown game on such passes versus the Vikings this season.

Luck’s much-maligned offensive line deserves credit for his big day. For the first time since Week 2 of 2015, Luck on Sunday was not sacked, and he was under duress on a season-low 17.2 percent of his dropbacks. Further, he had at least 2 seconds in the pocket on 20 of his 33 dropbacks, and he had a 97.5 Total QBR when given that much time to throw.

Bryce Petty: 17.1 Total QBR

Petty led the Jets on a seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to open Saturday’s game. It went downhill from there. Before leaving with an injury, Petty turned the ball over three times and took three sacks. All in all, he cost his team 5.4 more points than an average quarterback would have on the same number of plays, the most of any quarterback in Week 15.

All three of Petty’s turnovers came against four or fewer pass-rushers, an area he has struggled all season. Petty had a 6.9 Total QBR when facing standard pressure Saturday, lowering his season total to 17.2 on such plays. Only one player with at least 100 action plays has a lower QBR against standard pass rush this season (Jared Goff – 12.1).

Blake Bortles: 18.1 QBR

It was another rough outing for Bortles, who passed for a career-low 92 yards on 28 attempts in the Jaguars’ 21-20 loss in Houston. As has been the case for the majority of the season, Bortles could find his touch on deep passes. He was 1-of-10 on passes more than 10 yards downfield, including his game-ending interception with just over a minute remaining and the Jaguars trailing by 1.

Bortles now ranks 28th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks in Total QBR, slightly ahead of two QB who were benched earlier this season. He has posted a QBR below 50 in eight of 14 games this season and his season-level QBR has regressed by 7.8 points since last season.

Trevor Siemian: 18.3 Total QBR

Siemian entered Sunday’s game with an 89.9 Total QBR against the blitz, third-best in the NFL. Naturally, the Patriots avoiding blitzing Siemian.

Siemian was blitzed on a season-low 6.7 percent of his dropbacks Sunday (3 of 45). Siemian had his longest completion of the game (31 yards) when blitzed, but he threw an interception and was sacked four times against four or fewer pass-rushers.

The Broncos had limited opportunities in the red zone Sunday, but Siemian struggled there, going 0-for-2 with the previously mentioned interception. That interception reduced the Broncos’ win probability by 21.3 percentage points, the biggest win-probability swing on any play in the game. That play was a big factor in Siemian costing his team 5.2 more points than an average quarterback would have on the same amount of plays, the second-most in Week 15 behind Petty.

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